By– Clifford G. Gaddy and Barry W. Ickes
please visit(for full story and analysis) —-http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2014/06/03-can-sanctions-stop-putin-gaddy-ickes
American policy, Crimean crisis, economic sanctions on Russia, effects of sanctions on Russia, EU, Russia-Europe confrontation, Russia-europe economic relationship, russia’s option, RUSSIAN ATTITUDE, RUSSIAN ECONOMY, RUSSIAN POLICY, Russian sanction, SANCTION ON RUSSIA, ukrainian crisis
SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA-IT’S IMPACTS AND BROADER IMPLICATIONS
Sanctions on Russia especially the sanctions on Russia’s(in relation to Ukrainian crisis) energy and banking sector may/will severely bite Moscow which is an undeniable fact. As of now sanctions are mostly concentrated on individuals and some un-important entities which do not have much exposure or teeth. But the situation has caused significant capital flights (more than $50bn) from Russia in the last two months.
The inevitable impact will be the stagnation of Russian economy with significant hindrance to growth and modernization. The target of the west and united states to weaken Russia internally. But history has shown Russia managed to survive even under more deplorable condition and by the grace of Christ evil Americans and Europeans would not be able to destroy Russia. But apart from this, there is also a silver lining because Russia can easily shift it’s business to east especially to china and other BRICS nation as the sanction is not authorized by any international body like UN security council. Russian energy items are very much in demand. Though enthusiastic, west will not be able to impose significant sanction on Russian energy sector for long term due to it’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. In fact,Russian energy is much more cheaper ,eco-friendly and of higher quality with huge pipeline infrastructure which cannot be avoided even in wildest dream. Those people who are thinking to bring American gas or LNG to Europe are also living in fools’ world because even we assume USA starts delivering it’s energy,it will take more than four to five years from now to set up a minimum infrastructure or terminal and transport cost will be almost unmanageable.
In this circumstances, Russia needs to concentrate and I think it should/will concentrate to produce high quality luxury items and consumer goods on it’s won. The sanction regime must be seen as boon to diversify Russian economy and much needed structural reform. If Russia can manage high agricultural production, then everything may/will be ok but of course not fine. Alienation is both boon or bane because it is beyond doubt usa and it’s western allies are much more in controlling position in the field of economy and technology. Russia has a great advantage that it makes all military equipments on her own and it is the second most exporter of defense items just after united states. Russia is lucky to have great deposit of natural resources which can be used for new age industrial revolution if proper policy is built up. Russian elite and population will be more and more consolidated.
We need to see what west and united states could loose from the sanction. Russian oil ,gas and other natural resources(including gold, diamond, titanium) are driver of various industries in west and united states.Western and American energy corporations are entwined to Russian state run oil and gas company (Gazprom,Rosneft)with lucrative deal and investments. Several European banks are parts of these projects. So any sanction on Russian energy sector significantly bites both sides. Russia is the europe’s largest automobile market. Russian tourists are source of income of various countries. Also Russia is the most significant tech-market in Europe. Europe understands the mutually assured destruction scenario more than others. Their American boss may ignore Russia as it has very negligible bilateral trade with Russia, but Europe may/will bleed by economic warfare against Russia.
Another problem which is going to happen that economically and socially weak Russia will cause destabilization in central Asian countries where there are hot beds of Islamic jihadist and terrorist activities.The drug trafficking will significantly increase as there will be limited/no presence of western and American troops in Afghanistan and economically weak Russia would not be able to control all the situation.Strong Russia may seen as hostile to western and American policies or demands but weak Russia means direct threat to western security structure and law and order problems.We need to remember Russia is only the second country after united states which hosts largest migrant/immigrant population and Russian income is the source of money for all the ex-soviet republics and even eastern Europe.If Russian money line is closed or deterred somehow, there may be mass-chaos which will be beyond control.West will certainly experience law and order problem including refugee crisis.West is also experiencing recession, so sanction at the time of recovery is lethal. For Ukraine,the west’s favored child will be destroyed as west cannot afford to help Ukraine except sweet talks and loans while Russia can help Ukraine in real economic sense (IMF chief recently told that without Russian support Ukrainian economy would have been collapsed).So it will be wise for west to stop throwing stones from glass house.
In geo-political aspect ,Russia will be more and more hostile to western and American policies and will be in the fold of china as there is no string attached. If west/usa wants to solve middle eastern problems ,African conflicts, balance of power in Asia, Korean crisis, it will need Russian participation willingly or not. China will have the opportunity to get access to sophisticated Russian military technology which will not be in the interest of usa and it’s western allies and Asian partners. BRICS will be more powerful as they are against any kind of sanction against Russia.Position of Chinese currency would be strengthened as it would be supported by Russian oil and gas.
Last but not the least sanction is a crime against humanity.It is against the idea free trade and globalized world for which usa and west claim to stand for. Sanction heats the lives of publics,lives of young generation,lives of women and children,health care,civilian technological co-operation. It is not good to put sanction by using own reserve currencies.This practice is the reminiscent of colonial practice.Sanction regime of west and united states show how much savage,primitive and destructive the nations are who can destroy countries/nations instead of doing any good. West and usa needs to understand sanction never produced any positive results in any part of the world instead of creating vulnerable and rogue states. History is the witness. Let us see what happens and let us hope for the best that there would be no more sanction. Instead of banking on sanction rhetoric Europe must formulate a policy to bring Russia in European Union to put an end to all conflict.
ANTI-GOVT PROTESTS IN UKRAINE, Anti-russian sentiment in Ukraine, INFORMATION WAR, PROTESTS IN UKRAINE, UKRAINE, UKRAINE IN BOILING POINT, Ukraine suspends European deal, Ukraine’s European integration, UKRAINIAN PROTESTS, Ukrainina media, UKRAOINE’S GOAL.PRO-EUROPEAN SENTIMENT IN UKRAINE, Yanukovich
PROTESTERS IN UKRAINE HAVE LOST THEIR MIND AND BRAINS
The on-going protests held by anti-govt protesters in Ukraine have lost their mind and brains. Their European ambition is not only elusive but also impractical.
Any integration must bring prosperity to the nation. Today Europe itself is troubled with so much problems regarding it’s ailing economy and global recession. So this is totally wrong notion that Europe will rescue Ukraine.On the other hand it is impossible to expect any kind of concession from Russia as this pro-European rhetoric is based on anti-Russian both in sentiment and financial point of views.
Union in now a days cannot/shouldn’t be on the basis of xenophobia and hatred and it should be based on economic pragmatism. The rosy idea revolving around especially among the pro-European protesters and their well wishers in and abroad, are missing the economic factors of the integration (this has been discussed in previous articles published in this blog). The protests across several cities of western Ukraine are based on Russo-phobia using the revisionism of history.
The idea to integrate Ukraine is not only irrational but utterly suicidal. Ukraine needs to understand the situation from the already integrated countries of east Europe which did not get the expected benefit. Unemployment, debt have hit those countries severely.
It could have been well founded reason if European Union could help Ukraine with special economic package to modernize it’s economy and subsequently help Ukraine to integrate into the EU.West knows very well that this is difficult task as Ukraine will need more than $100bn to modernize Ukrainian economy and would also take time to deliver the whole process.That means cheap integration is impossible.
But west and USA have the eternal source of propaganda campaign which jeopardize a nation and it’s stability. They are funding Ukrainian oppositions and different nationalists groups to raise VOICE of DISCONTENT AGAINST PRESENT Yanukovich govt and want to create a situation like Orange revolution. Various NGOs and media groups are also doing the dirty tricks with foreign money to give west and USA an extra edge in this chaotic situation.
The situation may tear upon the nation as east Ukraine is pro-Russian and anti-EU.The population of west Ukraine and the opposition should realize that time is not ripe for any kind of hasty decision. Their president never told that his country would not integrate with EU.So this is not the time to perform any hot-headed activities which are going on Ukrainian capital, Kiev.
Opposition groups should behave responsibly and co-operate with the authority. They can discuss the situation and create a pragmatic road map to integrate with EU in future. Their action is self-deceiving and self-destructive at this moment. They must realize that their economy is today not in good condition and their protest movements are suspending economic as well as business activities and causing loss in their real time GDP. They should not lose their real todays for elusive tomorrows.
Customs Union, EU-Russia relationship, EU-Ukrainian relationship, Eurasian affair, Pressure of EU on Ukraine, russia, Russia Ukraine relation, Russia’s concern and contention, Russian factor, Russian influence, Russian pressure on Ukraine, Russian rationale, Russian resistance to Ukraine’s European membership, UKRAINE, Zbigniew Brzezinski
RUSSIA’S STAND AND POSITION OF UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION-RATIONAL, PRAGMATIC AND REASONABLE
Russia’s position on Ukraine’s European integration is rational, pragmatic and reasonable. Russia is not a foolish country which wants to derail Ukraine’s European integration in any form. Russia’ stand is very clear that Ukraine is an independent country which has the right to choice it’s own path. Russia does not meddle into Ukraine’s internal affair as the west did during orange revolution. Russia is supportive of Ukraine as a predictable, prosperous and friendly neighbor. Russia is not at all pressuring Ukraine to join it’s customs union instead of that it wants special relation with Ukraine to continue. In present days Russia is not carrying any kind of baggage of communist, soviet or imperialist ideology like the United States which wants dominate the world by using brutal military force and nasty politics of sanctions.
Russian concern about Ukraine’s European association agreement should be understood from economic point of view. Russia cannot afford to be the dumping house of low cost Ukrainian goods as well as repackaged low cost European goods as Russia has virtually no border control with Ukraine. Russia cannot see it’s industries destroyed by intrusion of doctored products in any form. West and USA want a weak, feeble Russia both economically and militarily using Ukraine as their dependable imperialist tool. The aggression is well understood by Russian leadership. So it is concerned much more about it’s own existence than Ukraine’ European dream. Russia has no option but to have stiff border control and anti-dumping taxes on Ukrainian products.
Military potential of Ukrainian soil is also Russian concern as it would dramatically change balance of power in the region giving rise to instability, violence, conflict as Ukraine’s European membership will gradually make it a member of NATO whose credential as global policeman and aggressor is a well known fact.
As long as Russia does not get any kind of solid legally binding agreement addressing it’s concern, Russia cannot and should not co-operate even slightly with the Europe and the United states.Other’s countries’ prosperity is not Russia’s problem, but for the shake of it Russia has no reason to sacrifice it’s own interest. View of Russians about Ukrainians is brotherly, friendly and warm as Russians can connect their soul rightly with Ukrainians in terms of culture, language,religion and geography. Even eastern part of Ukraine has the same warm feelings about Russia despite negative propaganda campaign. Ukrainians completely support or do not completely support is equally a wrong notion. So as a nation Ukraine itself is undecided as in spite of elusive European dream they have nothing but paper and pencil.
Those who chants ant-Russian slogan in Ukraine (the ultra-nationalists and pro-European think tanks) and abroad including their well-wishers and promoters should donate their property and belongings to Ukrainian govt to raise necessary funds to enable itself to join European block in spite of invisible carrot stick and anti-Russian campaign. It is worth of suspicion that they have not got enough money even for themselves in this era of austerity and financial meltdown or their property and belongings are not enough worthy to meet Ukrainian needs. Instead of practicing and following Zbigniew Brzezinski’s imperial and anti-Russian geo-political theory, they should look their own face in mirror.
Russia is not colony of west and United States. Ukraine may change their colonial boss from time o time and submit to western and American control but Russia cannot remain calm at the time when it’s own interest is being compromised.Ukraine,west and united states do not require any kind of permission from Kremlin about Ukraine’s European integration but must address Russian concern instead of propagating Russo-phobic campaign and signing up senseless petition on white house page to oblige Ukraine externally about it’s own decision.
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UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION-MORE POLITICS, LESS ECONOMY
Ukraine’s European integration project is an ever expansionist and imperialist goal set by European and American policymakers. This has less economic sense than having a more geo-political conspiracy with a civilized face of Europeanism. The reaction from United States has proved that Europe has become an American colony and set to fulfill American goal creating Ukraine against a credible pawn against Russia and to some extent China.
Ukraine is a natural and extended part of Russian identity. With Cyrillic alphabets, Slavic identity to orthodox Christianity- Ukraine is much closer to Russian heart and soul. In fact, Russia evolved from Ukraine with the advent of Kievan Rus. Geographical and economic proximity are also major points of this relationship. The shared history of more than thousands years makes this relation much more informal though situation has dramatically changed after the fall of Soviet Union.
Since the disappearance of Soviet Union, west with their partner united states launched a massive information campaign against Russia inciting russophobia and illusive concept of Russian invasion.The historical revisionism and negative propaganda campaign funded and supported by west and united states made the Ukrainian people forget about the soviet contribution to Ukraine’s industrialization and economy.The people of western Ukraine became natural prey of this toxic campaign while eastern part of Ukraine with a sizeable Russian speaking population continues to hold Russia as a friendly neighbor. The hate campaign gave rise to ultra-nationalist parties and right wing extremism in Ukraine ultimately causing so called orange revolution. West and USA also prepared this recipe for Russia and still relentlessly promoting this idea in the guise of promoting democracy and human rights to undermine Russia and it’s leadership though they have not yet been successful. Western calculation is that if they become successful to integrate Ukraine in European association then it would be easier for them to propagate their dirty tricks to launch ideological and information war against Russia and there would be the wider possibility to attack Russia with a future NATO membership of Ukraine to Russia. American and European govts are super active in this agenda. They have also got their loyal so called free press (both print and electronic media) to promote their anti-Russian campaign. Russian leadership is aware of the plot.
But if we for sometime set aside the so called geo-political and ideological objectives of European integration, we would find that joining European block would damage Ukraine economically which cannot be tolerated even if someone win over the ideological differences and preference. After European integration Ukraine is set to lose more than 300 billion dollars including cheap natural gas and oil from Russia as Ukraine’s quest for alternative energy resources and shell gas have not yet been materialized. Russia is right to have the calculation about possible dumping of substandard Ukrainian and low cost European goods in Russian market which would internally destroy Russian market and producers. So Russia rightfully started to impose ban and restriction and threat Ukraine of more stiff economic sanction. Ukrainian companies have already started to feel the heat as it has/would reduce trade in a sever way causing harm to industrial output and jobs. The Ukraine’s food production industry would be worst hurt by losing billion of Euros and prominent layoffs. This will cause instability in Ukraine causing social and law &order problem.In addition to that Ukraine has external debt of 136 bn USDs,and it will need 100 bn euros to modernize it’s industry and economy to the European level. Ukraine’s economy is not so big or great in comparison to Ukraine’s size. Ukraine’s industrial products are not of European standard and it will not get the benefit of export and it will be a place for import and dumping of European products. The trade mismatches and deficit would cause death of Ukrainian industry. The money needed for transition towards European goal is so huge that European Union cannot provide at this stage. The important factor is that being in European Union may not promise a bright future in long term contrary to the suggestion by pro-euro voices in Ukraine and west. West European country except Germany and to some extent France and UK, are in huge debt crisis and economic meltdown. The prominent east European country Poland is facing more than 30% unemployment rate as domestic agricultural and other industries have been doomed by European association. Also the east European countries are facing massive emigration as most of it’s citizens are fleeing to west Europe and USA hoping for a brighter future. The debt crisis and economic woes in Europe are also burdening the countries with massive economic default. One cannot live by aid alone. European Union’s big country will also exhaust Ukraine’s natural resources instead of strengthening it’s industrial and technical sector. But with Russia Ukraine can have more benefit as this partnership would continue various joint productions of internationally competitive products especially in machinery and defense sector. Also Ukraine will have the opportunity to modernize it’s aging soviet era gas transit pipeline with help of Russia and also good relations with Russia would generate smooth energy flow causing billion dollars to Ukraine’s state coffer. In addition to that Ukraine would have huge and proximal CIS markets including the Chinese one. The assurance of European aid to Ukraine is much more verbal, illusive and insufficient and Ukraine’s political leadership had no way but to pragmatically postpone the deal for indefinite period of time. All the factors prove that Ukraine’s European Integration is/will be suicidal as European Union is now functioning on expensive bailouts and aids.
Ukraine and it’s over enthusiastic pro-euro voice need a reality check. Ukraine is an independent country but independence does not create problems and insecurity to it’s largest neighbor, trading partner Russia. It can change friends, may be many Ukrainians find more warmth (?!) in west and USA,but it cannot change it’s neighbor. Here emotion and elusive goal should not over shadow pragmatism. Peaceful and friendly co-existence should be Goal of both Russia and Ukraine. Anything western, anything American may not be good options for all the days to come. Ukraine does not need to be a part of so called Russian empire and at the same time it should avoid itself to be a pawn of western strategy or American dream. It must pursue a goal to act in a balanced manner instead of jumping on any kind of pro or anti queue. That will make Ukraine a predictable and friendly nation with a clear vision and mission