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UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN INTEGRATION-MORE POLITICS, LESS ECONOMY
Ukraine’s European integration project is an ever expansionist and imperialist goal set by European and American policymakers. This has less economic sense than having a more geo-political conspiracy with a civilized face of Europeanism. The reaction from United States has proved that Europe has become an American colony and set to fulfill American goal creating Ukraine against a credible pawn against Russia and to some extent China.
Ukraine is a natural and extended part of Russian identity. With Cyrillic alphabets, Slavic identity to orthodox Christianity- Ukraine is much closer to Russian heart and soul. In fact, Russia evolved from Ukraine with the advent of Kievan Rus. Geographical and economic proximity are also major points of this relationship. The shared history of more than thousands years makes this relation much more informal though situation has dramatically changed after the fall of Soviet Union.
Since the disappearance of Soviet Union, west with their partner united states launched a massive information campaign against Russia inciting russophobia and illusive concept of Russian invasion.The historical revisionism and negative propaganda campaign funded and supported by west and united states made the Ukrainian people forget about the soviet contribution to Ukraine’s industrialization and economy.The people of western Ukraine became natural prey of this toxic campaign while eastern part of Ukraine with a sizeable Russian speaking population continues to hold Russia as a friendly neighbor. The hate campaign gave rise to ultra-nationalist parties and right wing extremism in Ukraine ultimately causing so called orange revolution. West and USA also prepared this recipe for Russia and still relentlessly promoting this idea in the guise of promoting democracy and human rights to undermine Russia and it’s leadership though they have not yet been successful. Western calculation is that if they become successful to integrate Ukraine in European association then it would be easier for them to propagate their dirty tricks to launch ideological and information war against Russia and there would be the wider possibility to attack Russia with a future NATO membership of Ukraine to Russia. American and European govts are super active in this agenda. They have also got their loyal so called free press (both print and electronic media) to promote their anti-Russian campaign. Russian leadership is aware of the plot.
But if we for sometime set aside the so called geo-political and ideological objectives of European integration, we would find that joining European block would damage Ukraine economically which cannot be tolerated even if someone win over the ideological differences and preference. After European integration Ukraine is set to lose more than 300 billion dollars including cheap natural gas and oil from Russia as Ukraine’s quest for alternative energy resources and shell gas have not yet been materialized. Russia is right to have the calculation about possible dumping of substandard Ukrainian and low cost European goods in Russian market which would internally destroy Russian market and producers. So Russia rightfully started to impose ban and restriction and threat Ukraine of more stiff economic sanction. Ukrainian companies have already started to feel the heat as it has/would reduce trade in a sever way causing harm to industrial output and jobs. The Ukraine’s food production industry would be worst hurt by losing billion of Euros and prominent layoffs. This will cause instability in Ukraine causing social and law &order problem.In addition to that Ukraine has external debt of 136 bn USDs,and it will need 100 bn euros to modernize it’s industry and economy to the European level. Ukraine’s economy is not so big or great in comparison to Ukraine’s size. Ukraine’s industrial products are not of European standard and it will not get the benefit of export and it will be a place for import and dumping of European products. The trade mismatches and deficit would cause death of Ukrainian industry. The money needed for transition towards European goal is so huge that European Union cannot provide at this stage. The important factor is that being in European Union may not promise a bright future in long term contrary to the suggestion by pro-euro voices in Ukraine and west. West European country except Germany and to some extent France and UK, are in huge debt crisis and economic meltdown. The prominent east European country Poland is facing more than 30% unemployment rate as domestic agricultural and other industries have been doomed by European association. Also the east European countries are facing massive emigration as most of it’s citizens are fleeing to west Europe and USA hoping for a brighter future. The debt crisis and economic woes in Europe are also burdening the countries with massive economic default. One cannot live by aid alone. European Union’s big country will also exhaust Ukraine’s natural resources instead of strengthening it’s industrial and technical sector. But with Russia Ukraine can have more benefit as this partnership would continue various joint productions of internationally competitive products especially in machinery and defense sector. Also Ukraine will have the opportunity to modernize it’s aging soviet era gas transit pipeline with help of Russia and also good relations with Russia would generate smooth energy flow causing billion dollars to Ukraine’s state coffer. In addition to that Ukraine would have huge and proximal CIS markets including the Chinese one. The assurance of European aid to Ukraine is much more verbal, illusive and insufficient and Ukraine’s political leadership had no way but to pragmatically postpone the deal for indefinite period of time. All the factors prove that Ukraine’s European Integration is/will be suicidal as European Union is now functioning on expensive bailouts and aids.
Ukraine and it’s over enthusiastic pro-euro voice need a reality check. Ukraine is an independent country but independence does not create problems and insecurity to it’s largest neighbor, trading partner Russia. It can change friends, may be many Ukrainians find more warmth (?!) in west and USA,but it cannot change it’s neighbor. Here emotion and elusive goal should not over shadow pragmatism. Peaceful and friendly co-existence should be Goal of both Russia and Ukraine. Anything western, anything American may not be good options for all the days to come. Ukraine does not need to be a part of so called Russian empire and at the same time it should avoid itself to be a pawn of western strategy or American dream. It must pursue a goal to act in a balanced manner instead of jumping on any kind of pro or anti queue. That will make Ukraine a predictable and friendly nation with a clear vision and mission